Mastering PERT/BETA/3 Point Estimate and Six Sigma PMP Questions


As per guide to PMBOK Schedule Management Knowledge area, Estimate Activity Durations is the process of estimating the number of work periods needed to complete individual activities with estimated resources. The key benefit of this process is that it provides the amount of time each activity will take to complete. This process is performed throughout the project.

One of the tools and techniques used in this process is Three 3 point estimating (also known as Beta/PERT estimation). From PMP exam perspective,

  1. It is important that the aspirants know how to calculate activity duration using 3 point estimates.
  2. How this estimation is used in conjunction with Six Sigma/ Standard deviation concepts

This is where most aspirants get mad with the mathematics and calculations involved. To make your job easier,

Step 1: – Here is an Excel based calculator which can be used to learn the formulas, logic and integration with the Sigma levels.

DOWNLOAD Link: PERT_3 Point Estimate Calculator

Step 2:- Take this Quick 5 minute FREE mock test to master the concepts and test your learning.

You can use the Excel template to calculate the answers however please note that in actual PMP Exam, you will have to calculate either manually or by using the inbuilt simple calculator provided in PMP exam software.

Welcome to your Six Sigma and PERT/Beta/3 Point Estimate PMP Questions

Take this quick quiz specially designed to master Six Sigma and PERT/Beta/3 point Estimates questions for PMP Exam

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1. A team member estimates that Task A will most likely be finished in 30 days. The best case scenario is that it could be finished in 24 days, and the worst case scenario is that it would take 36 days. You would like estimates for expected completion. What is the probability that you will finish the task in 28–32 days?

2. You have received estimates for one of your project tasks as follows: The Pessimistic estimate is 32 days, the Optimistic estimate is 26 days, and the Most Likely estimate is 22 days. Using this information, calculate the range of Finish Dates for this task with a certainty of 99.999 percent (6 STD).

3. If programming a certain module will take an average programmer 25 hours to do as the most likely estimate, the pessimistic estimate of 35 hours may be based on the assumption that a newbie is assigned to the task, whereas the optimistic estimate of 20 hours may be if they can get the veteran programmer Jones, who is rumored to dream in code. Using the weighted average technique, you determine that there is a 95.5% probability that the module will be completed in:

You are a project manager for a company. This month you are charted to deliver 10,000 units that are 60 centimeters each. Your upper control limit on your process is 63 centimeters. Your lower control limit on your process is 57 centimeters. Approximately what percentage of your units will be above 61 centimeters?

A weighted average duration estimate to calculate duration is called:

Remember: Whenever any question asks about weighted average, standard deviation or the variance from given three estimates, always use PERT formulas to compute the required calculations. This needs to be done even if the question doesn’t explicitly tell you to use PERT formulas.

Hope this post helps you in preparing for the Exam. Good Luck for the rest of the preparation!

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